import {queryHourly, getCoords, queryCurrent} from './influx.mjs'; import {getCelestialCurrent} from './celestial.mjs'; import {getWeatherCondition} from './openweather.mjs'; import {localDateStr} from './config.mjs'; import {uvLabel} from './openmeteo.mjs'; export let lastForecast = { ts: 0, slots: [], summary: null } export const forecastTTL = 5 * 60 * 60_000 function estimateUV(sunElevation, cloudFraction) { if (sunElevation <= 0) return 0; const clearSkyUV = Math.sin((sunElevation * Math.PI) / 180) * 12; return Math.round(clearSkyUV * (1 - cloudFraction * 0.75) * 10) / 10; } function linearTrend(values) { const n = values.length; if (n < 2) return 0; const xMean = (n - 1) / 2; const yMean = values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n; const num = values.reduce((s, v, i) => s + (i - xMean) * (v - yMean), 0); const den = values.reduce((s, _, i) => s + (i - xMean) ** 2, 0); return den === 0 ? 0 : num / den; } function dewPoint(tempC, humidity) { const a = 17.27, b = 237.7; const gamma = (a * tempC) / (b + tempC) + Math.log(humidity / 100); return (b * gamma) / (a - gamma); } function heatIndex(tempC, humidity) { const T = tempC * 9 / 5 + 32; if (T < 80) return tempC; const HI = -42.379 + 2.04901523 * T + 10.14333127 * humidity - 0.22475541 * T * humidity - 0.00683783 * T * T - 0.05481717 * humidity * humidity + 0.00122874 * T * T * humidity + 0.00085282 * T * humidity * humidity - 0.00000199 * T * T * humidity * humidity; return (HI - 32) * 5 / 9; } function vaporPressureDeficit(tempC, humidity) { const svp = 0.6108 * Math.exp((17.27 * tempC) / (tempC + 237.3)); return Math.round(svp * (1 - humidity / 100) * 1000) / 1000; } function absoluteHumidity(tempC, humidity) { const svp = 0.6108 * Math.exp((17.27 * tempC) / (tempC + 237.3)); return Math.round((humidity / 100 * svp * 2165) / (tempC + 273.15) * 1000) / 1000; } function pressureRule(trend3h, currentHpa) { if (trend3h < -2.0) return { label: 'Storm likely', code: 211, precipChance: 0.85 }; if (trend3h < -0.8) return { label: 'Rain likely', code: 501, precipChance: 0.65 }; if (trend3h < -0.3) return { label: 'Cloudy', code: 803, precipChance: 0.35 }; if (trend3h > 1.5) return { label: 'Clearing', code: 801, precipChance: 0.05 }; if (trend3h > 0.3) return { label: 'Improving', code: 800, precipChance: 0.10 }; if (currentHpa < 1000) return { label: 'Unsettled', code: 802, precipChance: 0.30 }; if (currentHpa < 1013) return { label: 'Partly cloudy', code: 802, precipChance: 0.15 }; return { label: 'Fair', code: 800, precipChance: 0.05 }; } function solarTempDelta(sunElevation, cloudFraction) { if (sunElevation <= 0) return 0; return Math.sin((sunElevation * Math.PI) / 180) * (1 - cloudFraction) * 6; } function nocturnalCooling(cloudFraction) { return (1 - cloudFraction) * 1.5; } function forecastHumidity(absHumidity, forecastTempC) { const svp = 0.6108 * Math.exp((17.27 * forecastTempC) / (forecastTempC + 237.3)); const rh = (absHumidity * (forecastTempC + 273.15)) / (svp * 2165) * 100; return Math.min(100, Math.max(0, Math.round(rh * 10) / 10)); } function estimateClouds(humidity, pressureTrend) { let base = humidity / 100 * 0.8; if (pressureTrend < -0.3) base = Math.min(1, base + 0.2); if (pressureTrend > 0.3) base = Math.max(0, base - 0.15); return Math.round(base * 100) / 100; } function forecastWind(currentWind, pressureTrend) { const boost = pressureTrend < -1 ? 1.3 : pressureTrend < -0.5 ? 1.1 : 1.0; return Math.round(currentWind * boost * 10) / 10; } export async function get24HourForecast(currentSensors) { const now = new Date(); const sixAgo = new Date(now - 6 * 3600 * 1000); const coords = await getCoords(); const history = await queryHourly(sixAgo, now); const pressures = history.map(r => r.pressure_hpa).filter(Number.isFinite); const temps = history.map(r => r.temperature).filter(Number.isFinite); const humidities = history.map(r => r.humidity).filter(Number.isFinite); const winds = history.map(r => r.wind_speed).filter(Number.isFinite); const pressureTrend = linearTrend(pressures); const tempTrend = linearTrend(temps); const humidityTrend = linearTrend(humidities); const pressure3h = pressureTrend * 3; const seedTemp = currentSensors.temperature ?? temps.at(-1) ?? 20; const seedHumidity = currentSensors.humidity ?? humidities.at(-1) ?? 60; const seedPressure = currentSensors.pressure_hpa ?? pressures.at(-1) ?? 1013; const seedWind = currentSensors.wind_speed ?? winds.at(-1) ?? 0; const seedAbsHum = currentSensors.humidity_abs ?? absoluteHumidity(seedTemp, seedHumidity); const weather = pressureRule(pressure3h, seedPressure); const slots = Array.from({ length: 24 }, (_, i) => { const time = new Date(now.getTime() + (i + 1) * 3600 * 1000); time.setMinutes(0, 0, 0); const pressureDamping = Math.exp(-i * 0.08); const pressure = seedPressure + pressureTrend * (i + 1) * pressureDamping; const clouds = estimateClouds(seedHumidity + humidityTrend * i, pressureTrend); const bgTemp = seedTemp + tempTrend * (i + 1); const temperature = Math.round(bgTemp * 10) / 10; const humidity = forecastHumidity(seedAbsHum, temperature); const wind_speed = forecastWind(seedWind, pressureTrend); const uv_index = estimateUV(celestial.sun_elevation ?? 0, clouds); const celestial = getCelestialCurrent(coords.latitude, coords.longitude, time); const snapshot = { time, temperature, humidity, humidity_abs: absoluteHumidity(temperature, humidity), dew_point: Math.round(dewPoint(temperature, humidity) * 100) / 100, heat_index: Math.round(heatIndex(temperature, humidity) * 100) / 100, vapor_pressure_deficit: vaporPressureDeficit(temperature, humidity), pressure_hpa: Math.round(pressure * 100) / 100, wind_speed, clouds, precipitation_chance: Math.round(weather.precipChance * (1 - i * 0.02) * 100), uv_index, uv_index_label: uvLabel(uv_index), ...celestial }; Object.assign(snapshot, getWeatherCondition(snapshot)); return snapshot; }); for (const slot of slots) { if (slot.sunrise && slot.sunset) { const t = slot.time instanceof Date ? slot.time.getTime() : new Date(slot.time).getTime(); const rise = slot.sunrise instanceof Date ? slot.sunrise.getTime() : new Date(slot.sunrise).getTime(); const set = slot.sunset instanceof Date ? slot.sunset.getTime() : new Date(slot.sunset).getTime(); slot.daytime = t >= rise && t < set; } else { slot.daytime = (slot.sun_elevation ?? 0) > 0; } const solar = solarTempDelta(slot.sun_elevation ?? 0, slot.clouds); const cool = slot.daytime ? 0 : nocturnalCooling(slot.clouds); slot.temperature = Math.round((slot.temperature + solar - cool) * 10) / 10; slot.humidity = forecastHumidity(seedAbsHum, slot.temperature); slot.dew_point = Math.round(dewPoint(slot.temperature, slot.humidity) * 100) / 100; slot.heat_index = Math.round(heatIndex(slot.temperature, slot.humidity) * 100) / 100; slot.vapor_pressure_deficit = vaporPressureDeficit(slot.temperature, slot.humidity); slot.humidity_abs = absoluteHumidity(slot.temperature, slot.humidity); } return slots; } // Group slots into local-time day buckets, summarise each as daytime-only function groupByLocalDay(slots) { const days = {} for (const slot of slots) { const key = localDateStr(new Date(slot.time)) if (!days[key]) days[key] = [] days[key].push(slot) } return days } function summarise(slots) { if (!slots.length) return null // Use only daytime slots for representative label/stats, fallback to all if none const daytime = slots.filter(s => s.daytime) const source = daytime.length ? daytime : slots const temps = source.map(s => s.temperature).filter(Number.isFinite) const precips = source.map(s => s.precipitation_chance).filter(Number.isFinite) const winds = source.map(s => s.wind_speed).filter(Number.isFinite) const gusts = source.map(s => s.wind_gusts).filter(Number.isFinite) const uvs = source.map(s => s.uv_index).filter(Number.isFinite) const solar = source.map(s => s.solar_wm2).filter(Number.isFinite) // Min/max temp uses ALL slots for the full day range const allTemps = slots.map(s => s.temperature).filter(Number.isFinite) const labelCount = {} for (const s of source) labelCount[s.label] = (labelCount[s.label] || 0) + 1 const label = Object.entries(labelCount).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])[0][0] const dominant = source.find(s => s.label === label) return { time: slots[0].time, label: dominant.label, code: dominant.code, icon: dominant.icon, temperature: Math.max(...temps), temperature_max: Math.max(...allTemps), temperature_min: Math.min(...allTemps), precipitation_chance: Math.round(Math.max(...precips)), wind_speed: Math.round(Math.max(...winds) * 10) / 10, wind_gusts: gusts.length ? Math.round(Math.max(...gusts) * 10) / 10 : null, uv_index: uvs.length ? Math.max(...uvs) : null, uv_index_label: dominant.uv_index_label ?? null, solar_wm2: solar.length ? Math.round(solar.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / solar.length * 10) / 10 : null, sunrise: slots.find(s => s.sunrise)?.sunrise ?? null, sunset: slots.find(s => s.sunset)?.sunset ?? null, humidity: Math.round(source.map(s => s.humidity).filter(Number.isFinite).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / source.length * 10) / 10, pressure_hpa: Math.round(source.map(s => s.pressure_hpa).filter(Number.isFinite).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / source.length * 10) / 10, } } export async function getForecast() { if (Date.now() - lastForecast.ts < forecastTTL) return lastForecast; const sensors = await queryCurrent().catch(() => null) if (!sensors) return lastForecast const slots = await get24HourForecast(sensors).catch(() => null) if (!slots) return lastForecast // Summarise today's local-day slots only const days = groupByLocalDay(slots) const todayKey = localDateStr(new Date()) const todaySlots = days[todayKey] ?? slots lastForecast = { ts: Date.now(), slots, summary: summarise(todaySlots) } return lastForecast }